© David Burton 2015

The Current Debate

     The sky is falling! is a phrase from a folk tale with a moral in it about a chicken, Henny Penny (sometimes called Chicken Little), who believes the world is coming to an end. The story dates back more than 25 centuries. The sky is falling! has become a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent. The name Chicken Little has been applied to people accused of being unreasonably afraid, or those trying to incite an unreasonable fear in those around them.

     Unfortunately, too many people, some well-intentioned and others with agendas of their own, have shouted that the sky is falling concerning the issues of global warming and man-induced climate change. Others have challenged these Chicken Littles. In the resultant debate over these global warming issues, proponents contend that global warming is occurring and is an imminent threat to human existence on earth. Opponents in the debate contend that the data collected, the modelling used, and the conclusions drawn are fallacious. Hundreds, if not thousands of articles, blogs, and reports have been published on both sides of the issue – many factual, some politically motivated, many biased, and some without any basis in fact.

     In the remainder of this article, only a miniscule portion of the published material related to global climate change is referenced. Feel free to search out and read the many articles on this controversial subject and to draw your own conclusions. My own conclusions can be found at the end of this article.

     “Temperatures on earth {are reported to} have increased approximately 1.4°F since the early 20th century. Over this time period, atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) have notably increased. Both sides in the debate surrounding global climate change {sometimes} agree on these points.
     “The pro side argues rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases are a direct result of human activities such as burning fossil fuels, and that these increases are causing significant and increasingly severe climate changes including global warming, loss of sea ice, sea level rise, stronger storms, and more droughts. They contend that immediate international action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to prevent dire climate changes.
     The con side argues human-generated greenhouse gas emissions are too small to substantially change the earth’s climate and that the planet is capable of absorbing those increases. They contend that warming over the 20th century resulted primarily from natural processes such as fluctuations in the sun's heat and ocean currents. They say the theory of human-caused global climate change is based on questionable measurements, faulty climate models, and misleading science.” (Ref. 1)

     A number of the arguments in favor of the theory of human causation of “Global Warming” are:[1]

• Overwhelming scientific consensus says human activity is primarily responsible for global climate change.
• Rising levels of human-produced gases released into the atmosphere create a greenhouse effect that traps heat and causes global warming.
• The rise in atmospheric CO2 over the last century was clearly caused by human activity, as it occurred at a rate much faster than natural climate changes could produce.
• The specific type of CO2 that is increasing in earth's atmosphere can be directly connected to human activity.
• Rapid increases in average temperatures on earth can't be explained by natural climate changes.
• Natural changes in the sun's activity cannot explain 20th century global warming.
• Human-produced greenhouse gases are causing the Arctic ice cap to melt at an increasing rate.
• Sea levels are rising at an unprecedented rate due to global warming.
• Rapid increases of ocean acidity levels can only be explained by human activity.
• High rates of increase in ocean temperatures is due to global warming and is causing additional climate changes.
• High rates of Glacier melting is due to global warming, causing additional climate changes.
• Human-caused global warming is changing weather systems and making heat waves and droughts more intense and more frequent.
• Dramatic changes in precipitation, such as heavier storms and less snow, are another sign that humans are causing global climate change.
• High rates of Permafrost melting is due to global warming, causing further climate changes.

• More than one thousand scientists disagree that human activity is primarily responsible for global climate change.
• Earth's climate has always warmed and cooled, and the 20th century rise in global temperature is within the bounds of natural temperature fluctuations over the past 3,000 years.
• Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 do not necessarily cause global warming, which contradicts the core thesis of human-caused climate change.
• Human-produced CO2 is re-absorbed by oceans, forests, and other "carbon sinks," negating any climate changes.
• CO2 is already saturated in earth’s atmosphere, and more CO2, manmade or natural, will have little impact on climate.
• Global warming and cooling are primarily caused by variations in solar output, not by humans.
• The rate of global warming has slowed over the last decade even though atmospheric CO2 continues to increase.
• Predictions of accelerating human-caused climate change are based upon computerized climate models that are inadequate and incorrect.
• Sea levels have been steadily and naturally rising for thousands of years.
• The acidity levels of the oceans are within past natural levels, and the current rise in acidity is a natural fluctuation, not the result of human caused climate change.
• Glaciers have been growing and receding for thousands of years due to natural causes.
• Deep ocean currents, not human activity, are a primary driver of natural climate warming and cooling cycles.
• Increased hurricane activity and other extreme weather events are a result of natural weather patterns, not human-caused climate change.

• Which of the two methods of measuring global temperature — surface temperatures, used by the NOAA team, or satellite observations, used by Drs. Christy and Spencer — is the most accurate? Or is some combination of the two, or some other method, more accurate?
• If trained scientists do not, can not, or will not, agree on what the truth is about whether temperatures are rising or not, how can the rest of us understand climate changes?
• Since the outcome of its analysis confirmed NOAA’s previously held idea about global temperatures increasing, and in light of previous manipulation of data by some well-known scientists, should we be concerned about NOAA 'correcting' data it 'knew were imperfect?'

• The climate is changing - The climate has always changed and it always will!
• Geological and historical records show the occurrence of major climate shifts, sometimes over only a few decades.
• Empirical evidence that dates back billions of years shows naturally occurring climatological changes on this planet that dwarf any currently predicted global warming effects – the age of the dinosaurs saw a very warm global climate, while there were several ice ages here on earth.
• The impact today of human activity on global climate appears to be comparable to the natural variability of the climate system itself.
• Human influences on the global climate are physically small - on the order of 1% - in relation to the climate system as a whole.
• We have a very poor understanding of the oceans, which change over decades and centuries. They hold most of the climate's heat and strongly influence the atmosphere. Comprehensive observations of the oceans have become available only in the past few decades and we do not yet adequately understand how the oceans will change and how that will affect climate.
• There is no unanimity in the scientific community that global warming is real.
• Climate models that are designed to predict climate changes have yet to be proven accurate.
• Deficiencies in computer models of the climate seriously erode confidence in the computer projections.
• Predictions of the effects of man-made gaseous emissions on global climate are subject to question.
• Most predictions of adverse climate change using historical data are highly questionable since historical climatological data only exists for the past few centuries.
• Climate science is not yet mature enough to determine the impact of human influence on the climate.
• It is yet to be determined if global warming would be beneficial or harmful to human life here on earth. Would less severe winters be a bad thing for much of the globe?
• The case for human-induced Global Warming can be just as easily made as the case against man-induced Global Warming and either position can be backed up reams of so-called “undisputable scientific evidence.”