© David Burton 2019

     With more than a year to go, the 2020 presidential campaign has already begun in earnest. Those Democrats who hope to replace President Donald Trump are already making their pilgrimages to the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire. President Trump has also kicked off his 2020 election campaign.

     If the Republican Party is stupid enough or cowardly enough to give Donald Trump a shot at a second term in office, and unless the Democrats foolishly nominate for president an aged Socialist/Communist or a wacko Massachusetts demagogue who claims some obscure descent from Native Americans, the Democrats will regain the presidency in 2020.

     The question facing Conservatives and diehard Republicans today is: “Will they stick with Trump and hope the most widely despised president since Richard Nixon can repeat his improbable 2016 victory and claim a second term?
     “The answer, most likely, is yes. The thumping the GOP took in the midterm election was not thorough enough to embolden them to turn their back on a president who still thrills his rabid base.
     “The gain of a few Senate seats doesn't mitigate the loss of the House, or of seven Republican governors. Nor does it change an electoral college map that shifted decisively in Democratic favor this past {midterm} Election Day.
     “While those Trumpites are intensely loyal to the president, there aren't enough to re-elect him. And the midterm demonstrated that the independents who gave him a shot two years ago are now heavily against Trump. [Emphasis mine]
     “Unless the GOP dumps Trump and unites behind a more appealing — or less unappealing — primary challenger, the destruction of the Republican Party that began with the 2018 vote will be complete in 2020.
     “Republicans need a principled conservative [Emphasis mine] who can reach the party funders and the old GOP establishment who were never behind Trump — and there's plenty of them.
     “It has to be ONE challenger, though, not a half dozen. And it has to be someone who's a safe vote for independents and even moderate Democrats should their party {put up} a socialist to challenge Trump.” (Ref. 1)

     Republicans need to understand and believe that Trump can be beaten for their nomination. They also need to admit that Donald Trump will likely be defeated if he is allowed to run for president in the 2020 national election. They should also accept the fact that Donald Trump is too egotistical to admit that he can be defeated. As a result, Republicans can’t expect him to admit that he can’t win a second term. It’s up to them to come to that conclusion and to act accordingly. The president has repeatedly proven toxic to the GOP's political prospects and hatred of him would likely draw Democrats, Independents and disillusioned Republicans to the polls in overwhelming numbers to vote against him come November 2020. The Dump Trump movement within the Republican Party needs to begin in earnest now!

     As a practical matter, Donald Trump has consistently demonstrated that he is shockingly unqualified and demonstrably unfit for the office of President of the United States. He has proven to be a loud-mouthed bully, a president who says one thing one moment and reverses himself the next, a disseminator of untruths, if not outright lies, a president who will take no advice, a president who fails to consider the consequences of his words and actions, and a president who has not one iota of understanding of nor respect for the Constitution of the United States.

     President Trump is now waging nineteenth-century trade wars in order to address twenty-first-century employment and wage voids. His blind bullying tactics with Mexico, China and other nations are creating an environment that could lead to economic disaster for these countries and for the United States. Other nations, that once considered America to be a partner and a friend, no longer look at us in that light.

     Donald Trump now presides under a cloud of charges that he has “obstructed justice, violated the Emoluments Clause of the U.S. Constitution, conspired with others to commit crimes against the United States and then attempted to conceal these crimes, advocated violence and undermined equal protection under the law, abused the pardon power, engaged in conduct that grossly endangers the peace and security of the United States, directed law enforcement to investigate and prosecute political adversaries for improper and unjustifiable purposes, undermined the freedom of the press, and violated campaign finance laws.
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     “We have also seen Trump attack press freedom and label critical media outlets ‘enemies of the people’; give aid and comfort to racists at home; and laud strongmen, dictators, and outright fascists abroad.
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     “{Americans have} seen enough. That’s why nearly nine million more voters backed Democratic U.S. House candidates in 2018 than they did Trump-defending Republicans. That’s why twelve million more voters favored Democratic U.S. Senate candidates over Republicans. If the United States followed the same democratic practices as most of the democracies with which we care to compare ourselves, Trump’s tenure would have ended after the 2018 election delivered a resounding ‘no confidence’ vote.” (Ref. 2)

     Before and after taking office, Donald Trump has irrationally fixated on the border wall between the U.S. and Mexico, creating a crisis in diplomatic relations, a threatened trade war and a loss of respect with the nations of Central and South America.[3] He first irrationally promised that Mexico “would pay for the wall”. [4] “President Trump’s threat to declare an emergency because Congress wouldn’t give him $5.7 billion for a wall . . . {marked a new phase in his presidency. . .
     ”Let’s begin with the obvious: There is no illegal immigration emergency (border crossings have diminished dramatically in recent years); to the extent there is a humanitarian crisis of asylum-seekers, it is not one a wall would address. The president has made it plain: The emergency didn’t exist when Republicans controlled both houses of Congress. It will not exist if Congress capitulates, allocating billions that will be spent only after years of litigation. That’s certainly not an “emer’gency,” as the term is used in everyday parlance (‘a serious, unexpected and often dangerous situation requiring immediate action’). Every president who has declared an ‘emergency’ has used it in the context of an actual emergency — 9/11, a hurricane, a forest fire, etc.
     “{A} former White House counsel {explained} that ‘a president has the discretion to declare an emergency, not to create one.’ [Emphasis mine] . . .
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     “The federal district and circuit courts have not been shy about rebuffing Trump’s executive overreach . . . They are highly unlikely to accept the president’s argument that an emergency is whatever he says it is and that it can be used to defy Congress when it refuses to exercise its power of the purse in ways he doesn’t like. [Emphasis mine] . . .
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     “. . . His promise for Mexico to pay for the wall has already gone up in smoke; when he has no wall to show for all his histrionics, he will be hard-pressed to declare victory. The courts in all likelihood will have confirmed that Trump (and his successors' powers) are curtailed by the Constitution and the courts. His ambition and his extravagant claims of executive authority will be limited. The winner will be the courts and Congress.
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     “Trump has painted himself into a corner, but his proposed escape hatch provides no relief. He’s a diminished president whose inclination to double down only accelerates his decline. It’s hard to imagine at this point that he wouldn’t face a primary challenge from within his party. After all, what do Republicans have to lose by dumping him?” (Ref. 5) “Republicans need to demonstrate that they will stand up and serve the American people, rather than meekly keep their mouths shut about Trump's decidedly non-presidential outrageous and bullying behavior.” (Ref. 6)

     Is the Republican Party ready to commit suicide? Like Lemmings, will they march in lock step with Trumo over the edge of the cliff in 2020? Hopefully not! “As President Trump’s approval among Republican voters drops, speculation looms about potential challengers from the GOP before the 2020 election.” . . . “Of the Republicans seen as possible challengers, some may simply be gearing up early for 2024 and beyond. Nonetheless, the amount of speculation about a GOP challenger to Trump in 2020 suggests a lack of unity in the party and behind the president.” (Ref. 7) Common sense and self-preservation may be taking hold in the Republican ranks. Still, it remains to be seen if a strong contender to Trump will emerge in time to take the Republican nomination away from Donald Trump. It’s a year or so away from convention and nomination time. Now is the time for good Republicans and true Conservatives to band together to settle on a presidential candidate other than the disaster now ensconced in that office. Waiting until convention time is not a viable or realistic option.

     So, is it possible that Donald Trump will not be re-nominated in 2020? “Trump may well be uniquely vulnerable to a primary challenge given his dismal approval ratings, his lack of connections to the major donors in the GOP and the fact that many Republican establishment types never wanted him to be their nominee in the first place.
     “In other words: A path does exist for a serious primary challenge to Trump if he stays on {the same} course he is currently on.” (Ref. 8)

     “{S}omeone should — must — run against Trump. This is the best way for the GOP to purge itself of Trump’s worst aspects and maybe even cause his downfall in the general election. For the party to sort out its internal contradictions, begin to repair Trump’s damage to the country and restore a bit of faith with the Americans he has most harmed — women, immigrants, African Americans — it needs a serious primary challenger, even if most Republicans today still support Trump.
     “Trump’s GOP has become an unworkable vehicle for the propagation of traditional conservative policy, such as free trade and democracy promotion. . . . ‘A lot of voters are getting tired of [Trump’s] act’ . . .
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     “The GOP . . . is doomed in the long run if no Republican stands for the principles that the party has for so long said it defends: governmental restraint and individual liberty. Ultimately, the best way for the GOP to change course — to repudiate Trump and his chaos-inducing, nativist, racist approach — isn’t rocket science: Some Republican must take on the president. [Emphasis mine] . . .” (Ref. 9)

     Why should the GOP dump Donald Trump prior to the upcoming presidential election? One very simple reason - and perhaps the most compelling - is that they will likely lose the presidency if he runs on the Republican ticket. But, there are a multitude of other less practical reasons for the GOP to deny him a shot at a second term in office. Among the reasons are the following, taken from Reference 10:

1. Finley: GOP must dump Trump in 2020, Nolan Finley, Detroit News, 17 November 2018.
2. Dump Trump. Now!, John Nichols,, The Progressive, 31 March 2019.
3. Trump’s Tariff Threats to Mexico Are Bad for Everyone, David Burton, Son of Eliyahu.com; Article 363,
   6 June 2019.
4. It’s time – Dump Trump!, David Burton, Son of Eliyahu.com; Article 349, 15 February 2019.
5. Emergency: Trump splits the GOP, Jennifer Rubin, The Washington Post, 11 January 2019.
6. Most Republicans and Conservatives Have Sold their Souls to the Devil, David Burton,
   Son of Eliyahu.com; Article 352, 21 March 2019.
7. Trump could face GOP challengers in the 2020 election, Dylan Wells and Saisha Talwar, abc NEWS,
   9 August 2017.
8. 5 Republicans who could challenge Donald Trump in 2020, Chris Cillizza, THE POINT, 1 August 2017.
9. Why the GOP needs someone — anyone — to challenge Trump in 2020, Matthew Dallek, The Washington Post,
   18 May 2018.
10. Fifty Reasons Why Donald Trump Could Be the Worst President in History, Soapboxie, 5 June 2019.